Marty Makary was appointed commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2025. The prominent surgeon, medical researcher, bestselling author, and critic of the medical ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Last month I reviewed the excellent book, Superforecasting by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock. Now while we can’t predict the future, we certainly can create a model for the probability of an event ...

Assume you made a decision to invest in an active strategy based on, say, a backtest of the underlying process (to be clear, active means NOT passive market-cap weight in my context). Over the next ...